The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. This article attempts to present basic climate change information-based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations-at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean.
Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean.